[section_title title=The Demands of Future 7D Wars]
3.0 The Demands of Future 7D Wars
Given the world restructuring trends discussed in the previous chapter it can be seen that underlying factor reshaping the future world is ‘knowledge’. Knowledge and integrated response in the form of robust networks of all arms is becoming the central attributes of achieving enemy neutralization. The future of force balances will lie in intangibles such as ability to seize initiative, enhance intelligence and communications, better training, strong motivation, leadership etc. The de-massification of destruction is achieved by advanced technologies for surgical, pin-point attacks on high value targets instead of using the earlier method of massed attacks on large area in the fond hope that the target will be made in-effective. This is possible nowadays with the advent of ‘Smart’ and ‘Brilliant’ weapons and capabilities coming up in the form of unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs).
The demands on human decision making within this changing scenario based on hi-technology weapons, contrary to general belief, will increase. The high precision and high levels of destructive capabilities demands almost error free launch and operations of the new systems. In the wars of future there won’t be a second chance for anybody. The future soldier should be well-trained, well-educated and extremely quick. The speed of modern weaponry should be matched with the quick, effective decision making in the wars of the future. If there is a mismatch in these speeds, the cost of human error will lead to a less effective force than the forces of present day armies based on age old principles of brute force and machismo. Future soldier will be a multi skilled, intelligent and highly trained person with a good knowledge of tactics and even military strategy. The future armies will have a much larger “tail” than “tooth”. Number of direct firing soldiers will be less; however, they will be remarkably effective. Their effectiveness will be dependent upon the persons involved in Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, integrated logistics planners and executioners, and military trainers.
Another demand on the future soldiers will be a remarkable capability for innovation. This is especially true for a country like us. We have to do our best with the resources we have. Using systems for tasks other than what they were supposed to do will depend upon the innate intelligence and quick decision making. This is the key to the future wars. The scale in terms of manpower of the future wars will be less. A 2020 AD army brigade should be able to do what a division achieves today in terms of independent operations in attack and defense.
The real problems that will arise all over the world will be in terms of re-organization of armed forces. The rigid, top-down control should be loosened in the future organizations. Despite the remarkable Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) capabilities of the future, the command of operations should lie on the commander at the battlefield. The decisional authority should be pushed down to the lowest level possible. Are the armies willing to do so?
Integration of complex systems as an effective whole is the key to the wars of future. The old structures of independent operations of logistics, holding defenses, mobile strikes, air force and navy, intelligence gathering, command and control systems, and signals need to combine together through a series of innovations and possible intellectual inputs from technologists, military analysts and military commanders. This is possible if necessary electronic infrastructure is there.
All the systems and technologies will be rendered ineffective if the information being gathered from various sources is not analyzed and converted to decisions for effective operational employment of firepower. This information explosion should be converted to “knowledge” explosion through careful analysis in double quick time. The new wars will not be waged by machines which are based on the old military doctrines but by ‘system of systems ‘ that can win wars in near real time.
REQUIREMENTS OF FUTURE WARFARE – An Analyst’s Perspective
Future wars will require agile leaders capable of acting faster than the enemy to deal with complex and rapidly changing battlefields. On the battlefield it is our military commander’s intuitive decisions that will win the battles and ultimately the future wars for us. There is a need to assist this intuitive decision making capability of our commanders in compressed time. This assistance is possible through development of realistic mathematical models incorporating the detailed battle parameters.
The new and future battlefields will be highly non-linear. The old concept of sequential battle front (see Fig 3) has been replaced by Follow-on-Forces Attacks (FOFA), Strike Deep Strike Hard (SDSH) and Air land battle doctrines (see Fig 4). In these doctrines, battle front is considered not only the immediate engagement area, but whole space and all those elements in that space which support enemy’s forward deployed forces. These war execution ways calls for hitting deep inside enemy territory – way behind the immediate fronts where the actual combat between regular forces is taking place. It involves, hitting enemy Command and Control centers, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems, Logistics Support System and Strategic Units, etc.
The future forces will be deployed as shown in Fig 5. There will not be a clear enemy in the traditional sense of combat troops,
reserves, armored division etc. Instead, enemy military force will be based on small, independent, highly mobile and highly integrated fighting units. It will be imperative for the attackers to destroy not only the fighter units but also the integration links. The basis of this integration will be the Command Control Communication Computers Intelligence Interpretability Surveillance Reconnaissance (C4I2SR) system, Space and Electronic Warfare (SEW) system and Integrated Logistics System (ILS). Therefore, a shift from linear to highly non-linear battlefields will reshape the future warfare.
Another shift will be that the attrition process as understood in today’s war will radically change. Today’s modeling and simulation of combat assumes that two forces are locked in aimed fire or area fire combat in front of each other. Each element (troop, tank etc.) of both forces is killing/destroying elements of other force at a particular rate called the attrition rate. These attrition rates are the basic inputs to the present day mathematical models of combat. Future wars models should take into account non-linear nature of the battlefields and its impact on attrition processes. The attrition rates will change from the way they are being used in present day models.
Technological changes taking place in warfare creates a need for taking into account radically different processes while modeling combat. The effect of rapid C3I and SEW systems on combat need to be taken care of in future models. The proliferation of Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) should also be taken into account. The stand-off capabilities of modern day weapons need to be modeled. Finally the effects of mass transport capability of a nation and the ILS should be modeled within the framework of new warfare doctrines. A critical question is how do you take into account the Drones or Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) into calculus of new wars.